Are you chasing the perfect attribution model? Stop. You’re not going to find one. Here’s why and how you can still find a meaningful (and profitable) way to measure your campaign.
So the idea that you can use last-click analysis to truly understand the impact of media is deeply flawed.
Instead, make your creative and media optimization strategies a series of small horseraces. At the end of the day, every media has a scale, i.e., there’s only so much display you can buy before you saturate the market and don’t get a return, etc. So optimize each media channel and expand into other channels to grow.
Optimize creatives first. Each creative in each media channel needs to be a horserace; you’re always after the winning horse. Have at least three horses (creatives) in your race as a minimum and continue to get rid of the slowest. Then repeat.
Keep in mind, creative performance should be independent of the relative performance of media. Don’t worry if radio ads outperform TV ads because you’re going to be in both of them in a successfully scaled campaign. Just figure out the best creative to run in each media channel, run them and then optimize the media by looking at the relative performance of each intersection you’re buying.
When you’ve gotten your radio, TV and digital buying strategies optimized, try media mixed modeling. Because you can’t attribute cleanly, you have to model it by real world performance. For instance, what happens if you double radio spend? Or halve your TV spend? You need to watch the overall performance and then build a model based on the proven knowledge of your varying media levers. And this is how you build a successful multi-channel media buying strategy.
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