The science behind market share growth

This newsletter comes from the hosts of The Marketing Architects, a research-first show answering your biggest marketing questions. Find us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts!

 

This week, we're exploring why the loudest brands in a category are often the fastest-growing ones. And why excess share of voice (ESOV) still predicts market share growth in today's fragmented media landscape. 

—Elena

 

Brands that invest 10% above their market share in advertising typically see a 0.5% annual market share growth.  

This principle, championed by Les Binet and Peter Field, remains one of marketing's most reliable predictors of growth across most categories and time periods. 

 

Want to grow? Turn up the volume.                

In marketing, the loudest brands often take home the trophy. Here's why ESOV deserves a spot in your strategy playbook. 

1. It predicts future growth. When your share of advertising voice exceeds your market share, you're setting up conditions for growth. The reverse is also true. Spend below your market share, and you invite decline.
   
2. Context is everything. Increasing your budget by 10% sounds impressive at the dinner table, but if your category is growing by 15%, you're actually planning a business decline. 
   
3. Creative is the ultimate multiplier. Pair a big budget with mediocre creative, and you're just making expensive noise. But combine it with brilliant creative? That's like giving your ESOV a shot of marketing espresso.
   
4. It's your marketing health check. Spending above your market share but not seeing results? That's your canary in the coal mine. Time to check your creative, media mix, or maybe larger trends in the category you're trying to dominate.
   
5. It makes budgeting less of a guessing game. ESOV provides a framework for setting budget levels aligned with growth ambitions. Want to grow 2% in market share? You likely need about 40% ESOV. 

The digital age hasn't invalidated ESOV. It's simply added nuance. Today, it's the combination of creative quality, media attention, and spending levels that determines how much value you get from your marketing investment. 

Listen in on our discussion.

 

“ESOV: An Excessive Focus on the Wrong Thing?”      

This article for the IPA questions whether media spend alone can drive growth in a fragmented media landscape. It argues that fame and creative quality, not just budget, are crucial for earning attention and market share. 

Read the article. 

 

 

 

First mind, then market.            

“Mind share before market share." 

— Beth Comstock, former vice chair of General Electric