Your holiday campaign is already late

Shoppers start thinking about the holidays in June. Most brands start advertising holiday messaging in November. This week, join me to unpack our strategy team’s new holiday report and what it means for your budget. 

—Elena

A quarter of Americans start holiday shopping in October. 

2026 holiday shopper trends finds anticipation building even earlier, with a “halfway to Christmas” spike in June and “Christmas in July” content peaking across social. 

 

Show up before consumers start searching. 

 

Does it surprise us that holiday shopping starts in June? 

Not at all. Marketers plan around campaigns, but shoppers don’t. A shopper can spot something perfect for their kid any time of year. Advertising is a weak force, and one exposure rarely changes someone’s mind. Wait until someone is shopping, and you’re entering the race late. 

How should brands split spend between always-on and Q4? 

No universal percentage exists. Your category, competitors, and share of voice will all change the answer. Angela recommends optimizing for “share of voice when the room is quiet.” That doesn’t mean Christmas creative in July. It means building distinctive assets so Q4 says “Hey, remember us?” instead of “Hi, nice to meet you.” 

What changes for B2B brands at year-end? 

Your buyer’s bandwidth. Year-end urgency can bury a customer under 17 emails. That buyer is short-staffed, closing budgets, and still shopping for presents. The person signing your invoice may have just forgotten a gift for their mother-in-law. Cut the cognitive load, make the next step easy, and build the relationship before December. 

Is ChatGPT a real shopping channel yet? 

The early number says yes. ChatGPT converts at 7.1%, a hair behind paid search at 7.8%. That number probably undercounts, because it’s tough to run last-click attribution on a chatbot. Marketers should treat AI as its own channel and front-load your key words, since these agents read sequentially. 

 

Listen in on our discussion. 

 

“The Season of Control: 2026 Holiday Shopper Trends” 

Our strategy team explores holiday shopping habits, from June’s “halfway to Christmas” spike to 66 million engagements on gift-wrapping tutorials. The playbook that follows covers retail, B2B, and services brands. 

Read the article.

 

Early beats late. 

“Lost time is never found again.” 

— Benjamin Franklin, Poor Richard’s Almanack

This newsletter comes from the hosts of The Marketing Architects, a research-first show answering your biggest marketing questions. Find us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.