Seems odd to say, but a strong upfront is not necessarily a bad omen for Direct Response TV (DRTV) advertisers. In 2009 and 2010 as the economy began to recover we saw some really outrageous activity in the scatter market driven largely by anemic upfronts. Brand advertisers who sat out upfronts in hopes of a better deal were forced to enter the scatter market like frenzied sharks to gobble up inventory left over once the economy began to stabilize and the need to invest in marketing their products again was made apparent. It put an end to the relative easy ride that Direct Response (DR) advertisers saw in 2008 and 2009 when TV outlets where coming “hat in hand” to fill inventory (Example A: Cash4Gold in the Super Bowl).

What it also caused beyond increased rates was a difficulty for DR advertisers in planning buys and projecting clearance. Many found it tough to move product efficiently and make budgets for their clients when rates were increasing 20-30% a day on some top national outlet. Even those seasonal sweet spots for DR were thrown off by brand marketers who had sworn off TV altogether when they began suddenly swooping in. (Nice to see you again, The Gap, where have you been?)

While a strong upfront means less inventory and an initial uptick in pricing on the scatter market, it tends to sate the “Big Boys” needs for media and helps balance out the scatter market. The piece of the pie for DR advertisers may be smaller, but the hope is that we won’t have to fight quite as hard with general advertisers to get our fair share. That may be a “glass is a half full perspective”, but as the old saying goes, I’d rather deal with the enemy I know than the one I don’t (or maybe I just made that up).